Sunday's Democratic debate showed a coherent line of attack against President Bush developing. The participants were most effective when focused on jobs, the budget deficit and strategy in Iraq. This column is not meant as my personal attack on Bush, but it will briefly analyze how we can expect the Democratic nominee to challenge Bush on these issues where he is most vulnerable (much as sharks are vulnerable to attack by "Survivor" god Richard Hatch).

First, Bush passed two huge tax cuts, claiming benefits would "trickle down" and create jobs. However, Bush has the worst net loss of jobs for a president in decades. This — combined with the perception that Bush is asleep at the wheel while jobs go overseas (as the debate harped on) — leaves Bush's jobs record open to devastating attack. Many states painted red in 2000 have suffered monumenal job losses. This is huge, considering that Bush's loss of even one state that he carried in 2000 will oust him. Look for major Democratic focus on this.

Next, Bush is vulnerable behind his own lines due to a projected $521 billion deficit next year. Bush claims the deficit is due to post-9/11 defense spending. However, over two-thirds of the deficit results from a bad economy and Bush's tax cuts, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Big new federal programs haven't helped slow the bleeding.

Fiscally conservative but culturally moderate voters aren't likely to show up in droves to support a president who thinks "deficits don't matter" (actually, it was Vice President Cheney who said that to former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill). It is also significant that a Republican president won't be able to paint his opponent as a big spender, while himself claiming to be fiscally prudent. In fact, just the opposite will likely occur as the Democratic nominee mounts his campaign.

Third, Iraq has recently surfaced as a legitimate campaign issue. Gone are the days when it was a "patriotic" third rail. Platoon-size insurgent attacks are occurring in the Sunni Triangle, there were no illegal weapons (as outgoing WMD hunter David Kay damningly declared) and the war's price tag is more than $50 billion. A recent TIME/CNN poll found that 44 percent of Americans say Bush is doing a poor job in Iraq. If Bush's challenger can present an alternative strategy, Bush could be backed into a corner. If the summer power transfer to the Iraqis turns into a fiasco, the war will become Bush's weakest issue.

The debate showed that Democrats are already zeroing in on these issues. Bush, who once appeared invincible, has reason to be concerned. In 2000, the "trifecta" was Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida. It's too early to start calling states, but in 2004, jobs, the deficit and Iraq may be just the trifecta the Democrats are looking for.