With the 2024 general election less than a year away, the Marquette Law School Poll released the results of their recent polling Nov. 8. The poll was conducted between Oct. 26 and Nov. 3, polling 908 registered voters across Wisconsin.
The recent poll delved into the upcoming presidential election, potential third-party impacts, state official approval ratings, foreign aid perspectives and economic views.
Presidential Election Outlook
In hypothetical matchups for the 2024 presidential race, the poll reveals a close contest between Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump, with Biden slightly ahead. However, Biden trails behind other Republican candidates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
“Biden has a two-point lead 50 to 48 over Trump, but DeSantis leads Biden 50 to 48,” Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said. “When we look at Nikki Haley as a potential opponent, she leads Biden by nine points, a remarkably high number given the history of elections here in the past.”
Franklin said Haley’s lesser-known profile offers an appealing alternative for voters hesitant about Biden, whether due to economic concerns or his age.
The poll also found that former President Trump leads the Republican primary polls with 38%, with DeSantis and Haley respectively at 18% and 11%. Twenty four percent of individuals polled said they are undecided.
Third-Party Prospects
The poll looked into the influence of candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy, the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy, who went from being part of the Democratic Party to becoming an Independent last month. It found that 5% of voters will definitely vote for Kennedy and 23% said they will probably vote for Kennedy.
Another candidate the poll covered was Cornell West, running as an Independent.
“The truth is 69% of the samples say they haven’t heard enough about him to even have an opinion. And another 5% say they don’t know how they feel about him,” Franklin said.
Franklin said that though West is not well established by the majority of Wisconsin’s electorate, and the number of people voting for Kennedy is low, there still is a little less than a year for things to play, so not everything is certain.
“Right now it seems pretty clear that there’s more risk for Republicans if Kennedy is on the ballot than there is for Democrats,” Franklin said.
Wisconsin Elected Official Approval
The poll looked at the favorability of state-wide officials and top leadership within Wisconsin politics. The poll found Wisconsin’s two senators, Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Ron Johnson (R-WI), respectively at 41% and 40% favorability. Baldwin is up for reelection in 2024, but currently faces no major challenges from the Republican party.
They also found Tony Evers at 50% favorability and Wisconsin State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos at 16% favorability.
“Voss is one of 99 assembly members. That means he literally represents just one 99th of the state. The vast majority of people in the state have never had a chance to vote for him,” Franklin said.
Views on aid to Ukraine and Israel
Back in October, Israel declared war on Hamas. The attack led to the United States sending monetary aid to the Israeli government and military, which led to debate surrounding the level of monetary support towards the war.
“Only 18 percent of Republicans say we’re giving too much support to Israel, but 37 percent of Democrats say we’re giving too much support. So in fairness, you should point out that a majority, pretty solid majority, 69 percent overall, say we’re either giving the right amount or not enough support,” Franklin said.
28% of individuals in the poll said there is too much support.
On the topic of Ukraine, the numbers flip.
“55 percent of Republicans say we’re giving Ukraine too much aid. Only 12 percent of Democrats say the same,” Franklin said. “Younger voters, those 18 to 29, are the most supportive of aid to Ukraine, but the least supportive of aid to Israel.”
In Wisconsin’s political landscape, conservatives show greater support for aid to Israel but are less supportive of aid to Ukraine, contrasting with liberals who are more supportive of aid to Ukraine but less so for Israel.
Electorate on Abortion and Inflation
Two issues the poll looked at was how voters perceived the economy and the outcome of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned Roe v. Wade.
In October 2022, the U.S. inflation rate was 6.2%. Today, the rate is at 3.7%.
“Only 27% say it [the economy] is excellent or good. And that’s especially true of independents as well. Only Democrats generally see the economy as pretty good while Republicans and independents see it as very poor,” Franklin said.
Franklin said prices have risen faster than wages for many people. Now, wages have started to catch up or reach the same level as before the inflation spike, but people still see higher prices everywhere.
“It is clearly a challenge for the Biden administration going up for reelection if such a significant part of the population sees the economy as not good or poor,” Franklin said.
On the topic of abortion, a majority of individuals in Wisconsin’s electorate want to see abortion rights protected.
“Two-thirds of Republicans, 66 percent, are happy that the Dobbs decision overturned Roe versus Wade. They’re [Republicans] on that pro-life side with 26 percent opposed [to Dobbs] but overall 35 percent [of the electorate] are in favor of overturning Roe; 57 percent [of the electorate] opposed that [overturning Roe],” Franklin said.
The poll finds solid a majority favors abortion rights, particularly Independents, but a substantial minority just over a third are pleased that Roe v. Wade has been overturned.
This story was written by Uzair Qhavi. He can be reached at [email protected].
