Every year I look forward to the day when the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) gives me a heart attack for snubbing the best movies and in turn nominates the awful ones.
Year after year, as I wake up early (this year it was at 7:18 a.m.) at the most specific time, I sit in my bed and gasp as a C-list celebrity announcer reveals the nominations.
As I watch the nominations, I wonder what absurdity the Oscars will pull this year, such as when “La La Land” originally was the winner of Best Picture in 2017 until “Moonlight” was then awarded after a mishap.
I then hear them list the nominated actors and actresses and I sit and wonder if my favorites will be snubbed (which they always are).
It is something that I am now used to from my five years of closely following the Oscars. Now I shrug it off.
Despite the Academy producing upsets year after year, here are my attempts at predicting the 94th Academy Award winners.
Best Picture is supposed to be the list of the ten best movies of the year. Yet, many of these movies should not even be in consideration. (I am looking at you “Don’t Look Up”).
Best Picture: “Belfast,” “CODA,” “Don’t Look Up,” “Drive My Car,” “Dune,” “King Richard,” “Licorice Pizza,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog” and “West Side Story”
Will Win: “The Power of the Dog”
There is almost no way that “The Power of The Dog” does not walk away with the trophy. It garnered twelve nominations, which indicates support for the movie, actors, filmmakers and crafts. “The Power of the Dog” is not the best movie on the list , but it seems like the movie that the Academy will go for in the end despite not being a crowdpleaser.
Should Win: “CODA”
“CODA” is a coming-of-age story that has strong representation and a stellar cast. The heartwarming film follows Emila Jones, who stars as Ruby, the eponymous CODA (Child of Deaf Adults), the only hearing member of her deaf family. It was one of my favorite movies that I have seen in the last year, and it has a strong story behind it with a theme of family that everyone can relate to. The Academy rightfully should award this film in some way.
Snubbed: “tick, tick….BOOM!”
“tick, tick…BOOM!” is the biographical musical about Jonathan Larson and it deserved a nomination. It stars Andrew Garfield, who did receive a nomination for his performance, yet I believe the movie itself deserved a nomination for its terrific ensemble, songs and screenplay.
Best Actor: Javier Bardem in “Being the Ricardos,” Benedict Cumberbatch in “The Power of the Dog,” Andrew Garfield in “tick, tick… BOOM!” Will Smith in “King Richard,” and Denzel Washington in “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Best Actor consists of all returning nominees, and many are still fighting to win. It depends on how each star campaigns their movie over the next six weeks until the final round of voting begins.
Will Win: Will Smith in “King Richard”
In “King Richard,” Smith plays Richard Williams, the father and coach of widely successful athletes Venus and Serena Williams. Smith has a narrative building as one huge actor who has yet to win an Oscar, which is why I think this is an easy win for him.
Should Win: Andrew Garfield in “tick, tick…BOOM!”
Garfield’s performance is a career-best where he stars in a musical with upbeat songs balanced with complex lyrics. He should win, but I’ll be surprised if he ends up winning considering “tick, tick…BOOM!” did not get the expected support from the Academy as it missed out on critical nominations, unlike Smith.
Snubbed: To be honest, this is one of the only categories where I think the Oscars got it pretty right.
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” Olivia Colman in “The Lost Daughter,” Penélope Cruz in “Parallel Mothers,” Nicole Kidman in “Being the Ricardos,” and Kristen Stewart in “Spencer”
Unlike the Best Actor category, which has contenders with Best Picture nominations, Best Actress has zero, which leaves this as a pretty open race.
Will Win/Should Win: Nicole Kidman in “Being The Ricardos”
This year, Nicole Kidman is back in the race for her dramatic transformation of playing television icon Lucille Ball in “Being the Ricardos.” At first, Kidman received tons of backlash from people who did not believe she could do the iconic role justice. Despite people writing her off, she received lots of buzz, and I believe Oscar voters will connect with her performance. Kidman, after all, is one of the most famous actresses on the planet playing a television icon, so people that believed she wouldn’t be in awards conversations were truly fooling themselves.
Snubbed: Lady Gaga in “House of Gucci”
Even though I was not a fan of the movie, Gaga was highly anticipated to be on the list and even had a chance of walking away with the trophy. However, AMPAS did not receive “House of Gucci” well. It only got one nomination for makeup and hairstyling.
Supporting Actor has two people in the race to win: Troy Kostur and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Smit-McPhee is looking like the favorite to win, although Deaf actor Troy Kostur deserves it for his performance in “CODA.”
Supporting Actress is probably the most locked win of the night: Ariana DeBose in “West Side Story.” It would truly be a disgrace if anyone else won. When (not if) she wins, she will become the first openly queer woman of color to win an Oscar.
Even though I am not an Academy voter, I will for sure be screaming at the television and perfecting my ballot in time for Hollywood’s biggest night Mar. 27th.
This story was written by Patrick Curran. He can be reached at [email protected].
