Wisconsin may be losing some of its voice in the government to states in the south and west.

According to the state population projections released by the U.S. Census Bureau Thursday, Wisconsin's population growth will slow over the next 25 years, while other areas will be growing.

"Wisconsin is not among our fastest growing states," said Robert Bernstein, spokesman for the U.S. Census Bureau.

Wisconsin already lost one representative in Congress in 2002 because of the last census.

"When you lose a seat, you lose a vote," said Jerilyn Goodman, press secretary for Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Madison). "Individually, you still have a representative."

If the population only grows by 15 percent, or 790,000 people by 2030, as the report projects, the state's eight representatives may be lowered to seven.

"I think it's certainly troubling that Wisconsin isn't projected to grow as fast as states in the South and West," said Luke Punzenberger, press secretary for Rep. Mark Green (R-Green Bay).

Representatives have the same number of constituents regardless, Goodman said. So if the population gets smaller, the amount of land they represent increases to keep the same number of people.

"There's a great disparity nationwide as to the area that covers," Goodman said.

The loss of another seat would cause the remaining representatives to serve a larger area.

To understand the migration between states, one has to look at aging, where people go to retire and business development, Goodman said.

The Census survey uses data from IRS tax records and Medicare records to calculate migration, according to Bernstein.

Wisconsin is "kind of more or less in the middle of the pack," Bernstein.

Wisconsin is 28th among the states for the amount of population growth, Bernstein said.

However, the projections from the Wisconsin Department of Administration are different from the census projections.

"There's a sizable difference" between the census projections and the DOA projections, said David Egan-Robertson, demographer for the department.

The numbers are fairly close until 2010, and after that the census is predicting lower numbers, Egan-Robertson said. By 2030, the census projection is lower than the department's by 250,000 people, he said.

The two organizations use different methodology.

"The main difference arises in the area of migration," Egan-Robertson said.

The census uses the average of county-to-county and state-to-state migration from 1975 to 2000 to make their projections, Egan-Robertson said. Wisconsin lost a lot of people between 1979 and 1983 because of a serious economic recession, he said. The DOA has given greater weight to more recent migration.

"Our approach says that what happened more recently is a better predictor than what happened in the 1980s," Egan-Robertson said.

If the census predictions are accurate, though, that would mean Wisconsin residents, including Marquette graduates, could be facing one less vote in the House.

College of Communication senior Julia Gilling said she plans to stay in Wisconsin after graduation.

"I think that definitely affects us, obviously because the higher number (of representatives) has a higher effect on the number of votes," Gilling said.

It is possible that the projections are underestimating the future growth of Wisconsin.

"We know what needs to change to make Wisconsin a more attractive place to live," Punzenberger said. "Now it is just the question of getting the job done."

This article appeared in The Marquette Tribune on April 26 2005.