Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has reclaimed the top spot among Wisconsin Republicans and Scott Walker is running a close race with his Democratic challengers, according to the third installment of Marquette Law School’s politics poll.
Charles Franklin, a professor at Marquette Law School and polling expert, went “On the Issues” with Mike Gousha Tuesday to talk about the poll, which was conducted March 22 to 25. Phone volunteers called 707 randomly-selected Wisconsin residents and asked, among other political questions, who they would vote for in the Republican primary.
Gousha opened the discussion by talking about the significance of the April 3 presidential primary, which is now less than a week away.
“People are looking at Wisconsin and what’s going to happen on Tuesday,” Gousha said. “The Wisconsin primary could help (former Pennsylvania Sen.) Rick Santorum change the race or help Mitt Romney all but lock it up.”
Franklin announced that while Santorum was leading in Wisconsin among Republicans in February’s poll, Romney has surpassed him in the most recent poll, claiming 39 percent to Santorum’s 31 percent. Franklin attributed Santorum’s earlier lead to his victories before the February poll.
“At the time, Santorum was coming off a big win in Minnesota,” Franklin said. “Since then, Santorum has taken more wins in the South (than in the North).”
Franklin also discussed how the four candidates still in the race – former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Romney, Santorum, and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas – have gone up or down in terms of favorability and unfavorability ratings. He said among Republicans, Romney has made gains in favorability ratings, while Santorum has seen a slight increase in unfavorability ratings.
“Generally within the GOP, there are favorable views of Romney and Santorum, and also Ron Paul,” Franklin said. “There are mixed views of Newt Gingrich.”
According to the poll, President Barack Obama still closely leads all of the Republican candidates in general election polls with 48 percent of the vote. However, the lead has decreased slightly since the February poll.
“The race is tightening, mostly because of the strength of the Romney campaign,” Franklin said.
Poll participants were also questioned about the gubernatorial recall primary and other local races. Even though Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett has not announced his candidacy for governor, he leads the polls among potential Democratic challengers to Governor Scott Walker.
If Barrett decides not to run, Franklin said former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk would likely lead the Democratic field.
Walker is in a virtual dead heat when matched up against Democratic challengers. Walker holds a 47 percent to 45 percent lead over Barrett and a 49 to 45 percent lead over Falk. In these polls, about 5 percent of Wisconsin residents who participated said they were undecided.
“With a race this close, that undecided 5 percent could make a difference,” Franklin said.
Audience member Mary Czech-Mrochinski said she wasn’t surprised by the data shown from the poll. She said the poll results she found most interesting were those showing that 29 percent of Wisconsin households use only cell phones and not land lines.
Gousha brought up the issue of gas prices and how the public views the record high prices Wisconsin recently experienced. Franklin said participants were split almost evenly between those who thought the president can do a lot in terms of gas prices and those who said it is beyond his control.
“As long as we are paying over $4 a gallon, I don’t think this issue is going away anytime soon,” Franklin said.