- Super Tuesday draws delegates from 24 states—the largest ever
- Democratic candidate needs 2,025 delegates to win nomination; GOP candidate needs 1,191
- Huckabee expected to drop out
- Even split expected between Clinton and Obama
With delegates from 24 states up for grabs on the biggest day of primary elections in the nation's history, "Super Tuesday" may be an understatement.
Barry Burden, associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said he's heard larger catchphrases for the day of many primaries such as "Tsunami Tuesday" and "Super Duper Tuesday."
"This is about half the delegates decided in one day," Burden said. "It's absolutely enormous."
Super Tuesday in 2004 included 10 states.
According to estimates by The New York Times, Super Tuesday Democrats will offer a total of 1,976 pledged and unpledged delegates awarded proportionally based on the percentage of votes each candidate receives in each Congressional district. Republicans will offer 1,010 delegates, some on a statewide, winner-take-all basis.
A Democratic candidate will need 2,025 delegates to win the nomination and a Republican candidate will need 1,191.
News organizations count the number of delegates each candidate earns based on the number of projected delegates, super-delegates, pledged delegates and unpledged delegates. The New York Times counts only pledged delegates, those who have been officially selected by each state's nomination process and are bound by their preferences.
Prior to Super Tuesday, Barack Obama seized 34 delegates and Hillary Clinton took 21. John McCain claimed 89 delegates, Mitt Romney collected 27 and Mike Huckabee came in with 7, according to The New York Times.
Burden said Super Tuesday 2008 is so super this year because many delegates wanted to draw more attention to their states by moving their primaries up to Feb. 5. But this results in competition, he said.
"Each state gets less attention than if it were on its own," he said. "Candidates are stretched thin across the states and cannot be on the ground running ads or talking to voters."
Because the votes for the Democratic candidates are awarded proportionally, Burden said he predicts neither Clinton nor Obama will deliver a slam-dunk in any state.
"Obama might have the momentum at the moment," Burden said. "But Clinton is ahead in most of the Super Tuesday states."
Burden said he predicts Clinton will win New York and will also do well in neighboring New Jersey. Obama will most likely take Illinois, he said.
"It's hard to see a senator losing his home state," Burden said.
As for the Republicans, Burden said Huckabee will likely drop out of the race. Romney and McCain will have to draw a distinction between them, he said.
Mark Jefferson, executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, said today will be significant for both Romney and McCain because the Republican race is realistically down to two candidates. Although McCain is said to be the "runaway favorite," Jefferson said predictions have been wrong on both sides.
"This election cycle has proven that conventional wisdom has gone out the window," he said.
Jefferson said McCain contends strong in the northeast in winner-take-all states such as New York and Connecticut. Because California is not a winner-take-all state, both McCain and Romney vie for the Golden State's delegates. Huckabee traditionally runs strong in the South, he said.
Jefferson added that heightened Super Tuesday activity gives a significant role to the Wisconsin primary on Feb. 19. He said he thinks neither Republican candidate will come off of Super Tuesday with enough delegates to secure the nomination, setting up a crucial race in Wisconsin.
"I don't know how we could have played it any better," Jefferson said.
As for the Democratic candidates, Rachel Strauch-Nelson, communications director for the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, said the polls are tightening.
"It's looking more and more like things might spilt evenly," she said.
Strauch-Nelson said Democratic turnout has been huge. Democrats turned out 2-to-1 over Republicans in the New Hampshire primary and three-quarters went to caucus on the Democratic side in Nevada, she said.
"People have been turning out on record levels of enthusiasm and excitement for these candidates," she said. "I think we'll see the same (today) and in a couple of weeks in Wisconsin."