There is one thing that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and President Bush are sure to agree on during tonight's debate: the need for energy independence. With the price of a barrel of oil breaking $50 this week and doomsayers predicting demand will soon outstrip production, both candidates will be tempted to tout this mythical policy as the solution to our future energy problems. The convenient corollary to this is that less dependence on foreigners means less dependence on the Middle East. Don't be fooled.
The implication will be if we don't need their oil then we won't need them. Further more, if we don't need them, we can leave and in the process leave the region to its own devices. That is what we're meant to believe when we hear the sweet nothings of energy independence. Aside from being morally reprehensible the entire notion is a fabrication.
The United States imports about 63 percent of its oil and about 10 percent of its oil comes from the Middle East. It is conceivable the United States could get all of its oil from somewhere other than the Middle East, but without some sort of miracle, we will never rid ourselves of foreign dependence. Even if the United States didn't import any oil from the Middle East, the region would still be the world's leading producer. Since oil is traded on a global market problems in the Persian Gulf will always mean trouble for U.S. oil prices.
The grim predictions of oil demand outstripping supply might be real. When oil producers can no longer locate and pump oil fast enough to keep up with infamous American SUVs and the booming economies of China and India, oil prices are expected to go the way of the geyser — skyward.
Tree huggers on the left are poised to announce vindication. We're finally about to get our comeuppance for not embracing alternative energies, conservation and hybrid cars. Some will even suggest we buy ourselves some time by taxing gasoline at the pump. Industry lackeys on the right will opine for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. A prudent combination of drilling and conservation might help slow the inevitable.
Don't be scared. On that dire day prices will rise finally punishing sinful guzzlers like myself. Many people will be more careful about how they use their fossil fuels. Oil companies will have a financial incentive to dig up previously financially futile reserves. Other sources of energy will be revaluated and the ceaseless march of technology will slowly remove our dependence on the dirty goop in the ground. Humanity will move on.
Maybe I paint too rosy a picture of what is sure to be a shock to a world economy that depends so heavily on oil. But any politician who tries to tell you it can be avoided — or that we can isolate ourselves from its effects — is simply being oleaginous.
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