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The student news site of Marquette University

Marquette Wire

The student news site of Marquette University

Marquette Wire

Gov. Walker takes lead in final Law School Poll

In+this+combination+of+2014+file+photos+are+Wisconsin+Republican+Gov.+Scott+Walker%2C+left%2C+and+his+Democratic+challenger%2C+Mary+Burke%2C+at+campaign+events+in+Wisconsin.+%28AP+Photo%2FAP%2C+Scott+Bauer+and+The+Journal+Times%2C+Scott+Anderson%29
Photo by AP
In this combination of 2014 file photos are Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker, left, and his Democratic challenger, Mary Burke, at campaign events in Wisconsin. (AP Photo/AP, Scott Bauer and The Journal Times, Scott Anderson)

Republican Gov. Scott Walker extended his lead among likely voters over Democratic challenger Mary Burke in the last Marquette Law Poll before the Nov. 4 election.

Poll Director Charles Franklin announced that Walker has a 50 percent to 43 percent advantage over Burke among likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error. Burke and Walker were tied with 47 percent of likely voters when the previous poll was released two weeks ago.

While polls show important trends, Franklin stressed that “polls don’t vote, people do.” He later stated that voter turnout will likely decide the election.

The race tightens among registered voters with 46 percent to 45 percent advantage for Walker over Burke with a 2.7 point margin of error.

Franklin referenced changes in intention to vote as a factor for the widening gap between Walker and Burke. He said that more Walker supporters plan to vote than Burke supporters.

According to the poll, 93 percent of Republicans are “certain to vote” compared to 82 percent of Democrats. This is an 11 percent gain for Republicans since the last poll.

Although the Supreme Court blocked the implementation of Wisconsin’s Voter ID law, 60 percent of Wisconsin voters still support requiring photo identification to vote.

Franklin ended the presentation by illustrating the partisan divide between Burke and Walker supporters. He displayed a chart that showed large divides between the groups on almost every issue.  The only two issues that both groups agreed on is creating a casino in Kenosha and making first offense drunk driving a criminal misdemeanor

“We end the year as we began it,” Franklin said, “with a sharply divided electorate.”

The Marquette University Law School conducted the latest poll between October 23 and 26, surveying 1,409 registered voters of which 1164 are likely to vote.

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  • M

    Michael OlneckOct 30, 2014 at 11:39 pm

    Because it relies on the published results as presented by the latest Marquette Poll, Ryan McCarthy’s story misreports that Governor Walker enjoys a 7 point lead among “likely” voters.

    The governor does not enjoy any such lead. The results reported for “Likely” voters are for 585 respondents who answered the question “What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2014 general election for Governor, Congress, and other offices?” with the response “Absolutely certain.” One hundred and eight additional respondents answered the same question with “Very Likely,” and 85 respondents answered that the chances that they would vote were fifty-fifty. Among those 193 “Very Likely and fifty-fifty voters, Burke leads 52 to 32 percent. Only 25 respondents answered “Will not vote,” “Don’t know,” or refused to answer.

    The real story here is not some mythical 7 point lead for Governor Walker among those who are truly likely to vote, or even the more plausible results showing a virtual tie among registered voters, but the fact that Marquette University lends its name to a poll which reports its results in a distorted fashion favorable to a particular candidate, and confusing to the media.

    Michael Olneck

    Professor Emeritus of Educational Policy Studies and Sociology

    University of Wisconsin-Madison

    Reply
    • M

      Michael OlneckOct 31, 2014 at 9:04 am

      I have realized that there may be a defensible reason for limiting identification of actually likely voters to those respondents reporting that are “absolutely certain” to vote. It may be that fewer than half of poll respondents who claim to be “very likely” to vote actually do vote. This could be true as well for those reporting being “fifty-fifty” about voting.

      The Marquette Poll’s screen may be excessively tight, but it is not likely because the intent is to distort, deceive, or confuse.

      I stand self-corrected.

      Reply